Given that I am now receiving some gentle elbows to the ribs on the subject of updating these rankings...
|Competitor||# of Wins||Money Won||ToC Chance||Error Range|
|Tom Nissley||8 Wins||$235,405||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Roger Craig||6 Wins||$230,200||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Justin Sausville||6 Wins||$134,000||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Christopher Short||6 Wins||$94,752||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Tom Kunzen||5 Wins||$133,402||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Paul Kursky||5 Wins||$109,411||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Jay Rhee||5 Wins||$107,203||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Kara Spak||5 Wins||$83,401||100.0%||100.0%-99.8%|
|Mark Runsvold||4 Wins||$153,800||99.9%||100.0%-99.5%|
|John Krizel||4 Wins||$105,204||99.0%||99.8%-97.2%|
|Brian Meacham||4 Wins||$90,500||91.7%||96.7%-84.8%|
|Buddy Wright||4 Wins||$88,804||71.2%||83.3%-59.3%|
|Sara Heard||4 Wins||$85,601||33.6%||47.0%-24.0%|
Note: Thanks to a comment from indyjeff, I have revised the numbers to reflect the correct ToC Start Date of 2 November 2011.
So, John Krizel and above remain near-locks, Brian Meacham is very likely to make it, Buddy Wright is in a pretty strong position to make it, and Sara Heard will more likely be the alternate than a competitor.
All condolences to Paul Wampler, who is an excellent player denied a spot in the ToC by his misfortune to have competed in a particularly brutal ToC cycle.
As I understand it, the ToC starts filming on Tuesday, so an amusing fact about all of this is that I'm predicting something that's already set in stone. Congratulations to everyone who made the final field (whoever they may be), and I look forward to watching you play in a few weeks!