25 September 2011

Jeopardy! ToC Odds Update: New Season, New Superchamp

So, Justin Sausville (a former student of one of my neighbors, interestingly enough) has finally lost after an oustanding run of six games. The Tournament of Champions field now has four superchamps.

Given that I am now receiving some gentle elbows to the ribs on the subject of updating these rankings...

Competitor   # of Wins   Money Won   ToC Chance   Error Range   
Tom Nissley8 Wins$235,405100.0%100.0%-100.0%
Roger Craig6 Wins$230,200100.0%100.0%-100.0%
Justin Sausville6 Wins$134,000100.0%100.0%-100.0%
Christopher Short6 Wins$94,752100.0%100.0%-100.0%
Tom Kunzen5 Wins$133,402100.0%100.0%-100.0%
Paul Kursky5 Wins$109,411100.0%100.0%-100.0%
Jay Rhee5 Wins$107,203100.0%100.0%-100.0%
Kara Spak5 Wins$83,401100.0%100.0%-99.8%
Mark Runsvold4 Wins$153,80099.9%100.0%-99.5%
John Krizel4 Wins$105,20499.0%99.8%-97.2%
Brian Meacham4 Wins$90,50091.7%96.7%-84.8%
Buddy Wright4 Wins$88,80471.2%83.3%-59.3%
Sara Heard4 Wins$85,60133.6%47.0%-24.0%

Note: Thanks to a comment from indyjeff, I have revised the numbers to reflect the correct ToC Start Date of 2 November 2011.

So, John Krizel and above remain near-locks, Brian Meacham is very likely to make it, Buddy Wright is in a pretty strong position to make it, and Sara Heard will more likely be the alternate than a competitor.

All condolences to Paul Wampler, who is an excellent player denied a spot in the ToC by his misfortune to have competed in a particularly brutal ToC cycle.

As I understand it, the ToC starts filming on Tuesday, so an amusing fact about all of this is that I'm predicting something that's already set in stone. Congratulations to everyone who made the final field (whoever they may be), and I look forward to watching you play in a few weeks!

5 comments:

  1. It's been posted over on jboard.tv that the TOC is scheduled to begin on Wednseday, November 2nd, which if my calculations are correct would be the 33rd game of the new season. Here is a link to confirm: http://www.jeopardy.com/news/season28.php

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  2. Thanks, Jeff. You're absolutely right, so I have revised the table to reflect the change.

    Very strange that they're starting a Tournament on a Wednesday; is this another side effect of Trebek's injury?

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  3. Slight correction, Justin has $134,000, but that's a minor nitpick.

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  4. Hi, Nick! Three questions: How have you been? Are you going to the unofficial J! reunion again next week? And, are you planning on updating the blog re: contenders for the next ToC? (I sorta have a vested interest.) ;-)

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