| Competitor | # of Wins | Money Won | ToC Chance | Error Range |
| Tom Nissley | 8 Wins | $235,405 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Roger Craig | 6 Wins | $230,200 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Christopher Short | 6 Wins | $94,752 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Tom Kunzen | 5 Wins | $133,402 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Paul Kursky | 5 Wins | $109,411 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Jay Rhee | 5 Wins | $107,203 | 100.0% | 100.0%-99.8% |
| Kara Spak | 5 Wins | $83,401 | 99.8% | 100.0%-98.7% |
| John Krizel | 4 Wins | $105,204 | 98.2% | 99.8%-93.8% |
| Brian Meacham | 4 Wins | $90,500 | 89.1% | 97.2%-75.9% |
| Buddy Wright | 4 Wins | $88,804 | 72.8% | 89.3%-54.1% |
| Sara Heard | 4 Wins | $85,601 | 49.3% | 71.8%-31.0% |
| Paul Wampler | 4 Wins | $72,001 | 20.3% | 38.6%-10.2% |
| Anthony Fox | 4 Wins | $51,998 | 3.2% | 8.4%-1.2% |
So, Jay Rhee's addition has shifted the field somewhat; Sara Heard is now squarely centered on the bubble position. The likeliest field features Buddy Wright on up and three players yet to be named; almost equally probable is a field consisting of Sara Heard on up and two additional players. Paul Wampler is about even odds to occupy the alternate's spot, and Anthony Fox is likely going to be on the outside looking in.
This ranking also marks the final elimination of the last three-time champion; barring a highly improbable series of events, this year's ToC will consist entirely of winners of at least four games.
With the Jeopardy! boards offline for the foreseeable future, I have no way to announce to interested parties that this list has been updated. So, if you know anyone (like former boardies) who might be interested in this information, please be sure to pass it along to them!
Buddy's barely hanging on! I'm rooting for him. Thanks for this update.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the odds of a 4 time champion coming up before the next TOC who won't qualify?
ReplyDeleterafferbee: I'd guess that this 4xer's total $ earnings would be a large factor in determining that.
ReplyDeleteBTW does anyone know just why the jeopardy discussion boards are down? Wondered if they were worried about a season-end leak.
ReplyDeleterafferbee: That is an interesting question, and it's not entirely obvious how to ask it to my calculation tool. There's probably a way to do this correctly (and perhaps Certain Unnamed Parties will appear to tell me privately about them), but I'm going to half-ass it for the moment.
ReplyDeleteIf we use Sara Heard's score as the cutoff and ask what the chances are of a four-game winner with less than her total appearing, it says that the chances are about 50/50. The result doesn't change much if you use Paul's score or Buddy's score, either. So, that's what I'd say: there's about even odds of another 4-timer coming along who doesn't make the ToC.
Mrs. H: There have been two recent hacker attacks on Sony's online presence, the second of which hit their posting boards. All of the users' data (including potentially private info) were compromised, and Sony pulled the boards down until they could fix the (apparently, quite egregious) security hole. It's not clear when or if they'll ever return.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the info. And just when I was getting hooked....
ReplyDeleteGuess I should stop using my social security number as a password.
Thank you so much for posting this! I'm among the many upset by the Jeopardy! boards going offline. Two questions, maybe you can help:
ReplyDelete1) Why is the ToC being postponed until Nov? Do you (or anyone else) have the source of this info?
2) Why are the boards offline?
It's so unfair that they are delaying the ToC this year. I cannot believe that 3-day winners won't be in it at all. They should extend the tournament to include more players.
p.s. I just discovered your blog searching for ToC 2011 info. As a Jeopardy fanatic and Math geek I will definitely be backtracking through your blog entries :).
1) I don't know for certain the dates of the ToC. The last four have been in May, November, March, and May, and the ToC was always in November in earlier years. So, November (which is a "sweeps month" for ratings purposes) seems like a very reasonable guess as to the ToC date.
ReplyDelete2) The boards are offline because Sony's online presence was hacked, apparently using an unforgivably obvious attack. I will note that a fan-created board (http://www.jboard.tv) has sprung up to take the place of the Sony board, and that many of the old boardies have migrated there.
Finally, sadly for folks like myself, it's not at all uncommon to have a ToC with no 3-timers. I will say that I think that this is a particular shame in the case of Megan Barnes, who won three very tough games (one against Tom Kunzen, a true monster) and could very well have proven a giant slayer come ToC time.
I am all in favor of expanding the field in some way, especially if the expansion is large enough to include me, but I would say that, wouldn't I?
You can add Mark to this list.
ReplyDelete