|Competitor||# of Wins||Money Won||ToC Chance||Error Range|
|Tom Nissley||8 Wins||$235,405||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Roger Craig||6 Wins||$230,200||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Christopher Short||6 Wins||$94,752||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Tom Kunzen||5 Wins||$133,402||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Paul Kursky||5 Wins||$109,411||100.0%||100.0%-100.0%|
|Kara Spak||5 Wins||$83,401||99.9%||100.0%-99.4%|
|John Krizel||4 Wins||$105,204||99.3%||99.9%-96.7%|
|Brian Meacham||4 Wins||$90,500||94.2%||98.9%-84.2%|
|Buddy Wright||4 Wins||$88,804||83.7%||95.3%-66.9%|
|Sara Heard||4 Wins||$85,601||66.1%||85.7%-45.7%|
|Paul Wampler||4 Wins||$72,001||37.1%||60.9%-20.6%|
|Anthony Fox||4 Wins||$51,998||11.0%||24.8%-4.6%|
|Megan Barnes||3 Wins||$103,203||1.7%*||5.2%-0.6%|
|Alison Stone Roberg||3 Wins||$85,102||1.6%||4.8%-0.5%|
So, the most probable field is Sarah Heard and above, plus three people whose episodes have yet to air, with Paul Wampler as the alternate.
As was widely predicted, I did originally develop this tool to figure out my chances at getting into the ToC. In the beginning, before Tom Kunzen played, it told me that my chances were poor. As the weeks passed, my chances slowly declined to zero. With 3 wins and $80,101, I enter the list in 17th place, out of contention. I will not be going to the ToC.
That won't stop me from continuing to tend this odds calculation, though; I wasn't lying when I said that I was just the kind of geek who would do this for fun. So, while I won't be there myself, I will continue to remain interested in who will be.