| Competitor | # of Wins | Money Won | ToC Chance | Error Range |
| Tom Nissley | 8 Wins | $235,405 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Roger Craig | 6 Wins | $230,200 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Christopher Short | 6 Wins | $94,752 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Tom Kunzen | 5 Wins | $133,402 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Paul Kursky | 5 Wins | $109,411 | 100.0% | 100.0%-100.0% |
| Kara Spak | 5 Wins | $83,401 | 99.9% | 100.0%-99.4% |
| John Krizel | 4 Wins | $105,204 | 99.3% | 99.9%-96.7% |
| Brian Meacham | 4 Wins | $90,500 | 94.2% | 98.9%-84.2% |
| Buddy Wright | 4 Wins | $88,804 | 83.7% | 95.3%-66.9% |
| Sara Heard | 4 Wins | $85,601 | 66.1% | 85.7%-45.7% |
| Paul Wampler | 4 Wins | $72,001 | 37.1% | 60.9%-20.6% |
| Anthony Fox | 4 Wins | $51,998 | 11.0% | 24.8%-4.6% |
| Megan Barnes | 3 Wins | $103,203 | 1.7%* | 5.2%-0.6% |
| Alison Stone Roberg | 3 Wins | $85,102 | 1.6% | 4.8%-0.5% |
So, the most probable field is Sarah Heard and above, plus three people whose episodes have yet to air, with Paul Wampler as the alternate.
As was widely predicted, I did originally develop this tool to figure out my chances at getting into the ToC. In the beginning, before Tom Kunzen played, it told me that my chances were poor. As the weeks passed, my chances slowly declined to zero. With 3 wins and $80,101, I enter the list in 17th place, out of contention. I will not be going to the ToC.
That won't stop me from continuing to tend this odds calculation, though; I wasn't lying when I said that I was just the kind of geek who would do this for fun. So, while I won't be there myself, I will continue to remain interested in who will be.
I was dying for this update! Thanks, Nick. Sorry you will not quite make it. I think you do have what it takes. And I hope you will come to the unofficial Jeopardy! reunion if it happens again next year.
ReplyDeleteIt sucks that you lost, had me chewing my nails the entire round. Never acted like that when it came to Jeopardy. In fairness, we're running out of episodes, it is very possible that since you will not be in it :(, that Anthony Fox and Paul just got the big save of their lives. Right now both have more room to wiggle than Megan and Alison, beit due to Megan's pregnancy, that Alison is the defacto 13th place.
ReplyDeleteIt sucks man, but at least you came out with $80,101. Never hurts. Turned out much better than Anne Reynolds, :). Enjoy Nick, see ya when the Jeopardy boards are back up.
- Adam from the forum.
Aw, damn. I was sure for the last two months that you had won 4 games. I was really hoping you would be the one to bounce me out. April was the cruelest month for 3-timers.
ReplyDeleteBut at least you got in the "Hall of Fame" for your two 30k+ games, and did better than 95% of Jeopardy contestants.
Nick, were you in the audience for today's episode? If so I'd love to read what you thought.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, someone left a comment asking how tall you are, if you care to answer it.
I was not in the audience for today's ep; my parents were in the audience for my eps, and they needed to leave to get to their plane in time. Thus, I abandoned the studio and left with them.
ReplyDeleteA meeting in the lobby of the hotel, however, did spoil me as to the result...
Hey Nick, be ready in case Jay Rhee wins tomorrow, right now he's 3 games in so far.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be away from my computer for a few days, but if Jay Rhee wins tomorrow, I'll update no later than Tuesday night.
ReplyDeleteOk, no issue. Making sure you're aware.
ReplyDelete5 wins - $107,203, could've wished for longer, but bah.
ReplyDelete