Yet Another ToC Odds Update

Wow. It's time for yet another ToC update, since Brian Meacham just ended his very excellent run of four wins.

So, without further ado, on to the table:

Competitor	# of Wins	Money Won	ToC Chance	Error Range
Tom Nissley	8 Wins	$235,405	100.0%	100.0%-100.0%
Roger Craig	6 Wins	$230,200	100.0%	100.0%-100.0%
Christopher Short	6 Wins	$94,752	100.0%	100.0%-100.0%
Tom Kunzen	5 Wins	$133,402	100.0%	100.0%-100.0%
Paul Kursky	5 Wins	$109,411	99.9%	100.0%-99.6%
Kara Spak	5 Wins	$83,401	99.4%	100.0%-96.5%
John Krizel	4 Wins	$105,204	96.3%	99.6%-86.8%
Brian Meacham	4 Wins	$90,500	81.6%	95.6%-60.5%
Buddy Wright	4 Wins	$88,804	62.7%	86.2%-38.8%
Sara Heard	4 Wins	$85,601	41.2%	69.3%-21.0%
Paul Wampler	4 Wins	$72,001	30.5%	58.7%-13.5%
Anthony Fox	4 Wins	$51,998	3.2%	10.9%-0.9%
Megan Barnes	3 Wins	$103,203	0.3%*	1.6%-0.1%
Alison Stone Roberg	3 Wins	$85,102	0.3%	1.4%-0.1%

We have had an improbable pile of ToC-grade contestants over the past few weeks. We've had five ToC-grade players in the last 31 games, for a generation rate of about one per 6 episodes. The normal generation rate for players of Megan Barnes' accomplishment level or better is about one per 17 games. So, we're somewhere between two and three standard deviations from the mean here. In other words: This has been a pretty darn weird late winter and early spring.