Jeopardy! ToC Odds: New Update

The table below reflects four changes since the last update: First, Sara Heard finished an excellent run of four wins last night; congratulations, Sara! Second, Megan Barnes, in the thread for the previous rankings, announced that she was pregnant and will be unavailable for the ToC if she is selected. So, I have taken her out of the data for this year, but since I am convinced that the producers will invite her to the next ToC if she would qualify for this one but can't be there for it, I'll continue to calculate her odds. Thirdly, I have enlarged the error range to two standard deviations, meaning that there is a 95% chance that the "real" odds of making the ToC for any given player lie within the reported error range.

So, on with the table:

Competitor	# of Wins	Money Won	ToC Chance	Error Range
Tom Nissley	8 Wins	$235,405	100.0%	100.0%-100.0%
Roger Craig	6 Wins	$230,200	100.0%	100.0%-100.0%
Christopher Short	6 Wins	$94,752	100.0%	100.0%-100.0%
Tom Kunzen	5 Wins	$133,402	100.0%	100.0%-100.0%
Paul Kursky	5 Wins	$109,411	99.9%	100.0%-99.4%
Kara Spak	5 Wins	$83,401	99.2%	100.0%-95.2%
John Krizel	4 Wins	$105,204	95.1%	99.5%-83.4%
Buddy Wright	4 Wins	$88,804	75.8%	93.5%-52.2%
Sara Heard	4 Wins	$85,601	57.4%	83.3%-33.2%
Paul Wampler	4 Wins	$72,001	30.5%	58.7%-13.5%
Anthony Fox	4 Wins	$51,998	8.7%	24.7%-2.8%
Megan Barnes	3 Wins	$103,203	1.8%*	7.0%-0.4%
Alison Stone Roberg	3 Wins	$85,102	1.6%	6.5%-0.4%
Sarah Wilkinson	3 Wins	$72,701	0.1%	0.6%-0.1%

So, the cutline runs right through our new contender, Sara Heard, with the most likely field featuring her and everyone above her, as well as four people who have yet to play, with Paul Wampler as the alternate. It's interesting to note that even with 95% error bars, the cutline only moves one player in either direction at the extremes. It's also interesting to think that there is a roughly 1 in 20 chance that the Tournament field will be composed entirely of 5+-time winners, and that there is roughly a 1 in 50 chance that we will see only one new ToC contender in the next 100 games or so.